Abstract
Even though violent attacks resulting in civilian fatalities can be seen as constituting failure on the part of the incumbent party to provide security to citizens, governments are not always punished electorally. Rather, at times, they appear to gain votes following terrorist attacks. Here we argue that political parties that can take advantage of their local presence to frame and communicate their narrative in response to terrorism, can better manage to avoid blame and even to emerge victorious in times of violent conflict. The AKP in Turkey is one such important example. Our statistical analyses of municipality-level aggregate election results show that the party not only maintained national incumbency, but even strengthened its predominance in the political system in the face of growing security threats. In municipalities where AKP controlled the local government and hence municipal resources, the party did not lose votes following terrorist attacks. This finding remains even when we consider past voting, regional variations, competitive districts, and ethnicity. Our argument that incumbents can avoid punishment through their capacity to reach out to voters at the local level is also supported by individual-level survey data and the comparison with neighboring municipalities. As such, we highlight how local government control can be consequential for national politics, including periods when security dominates the national agenda.
Important figures
Figure 2a. Effect of terror and municipal partisanship on the incumbent’s vote rate in national elections. Figure 2b. Effect of terror when municipality belongs to the opposition party and when the municipality belongs to the incumbent party.
Figure 3: Marginal effect of terror in different municipalities.
Figure 4: Whether AKP is the party that can solve the terrorism problem.
Citation
@article{ari_et_al_2024,
Author = {Emine Arı and Reşat Bayer and Özge Kemahlıoğlu and Ece Kural},
Doi = {10.1177/00223433221126715},
Journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
Pages = {263–-278},
Title = {Avoiding fallout from terrorist attacks: The role of local politics and governments},
Year = {2024}}